If you have played much poker You’ve likely observed scenarios where a player goes all-in pre-flop, and their opponent confidently says, 'I believe you have Ace-King, so I’ll call with my low pair.' Often, the individual calling with a lesser hand doesn’t grasp the importance of evaluating an opponent's range of hands.
For instance, imagine a conservative, straightforward player sitting with a $200 stack in a $1/$2 game who raises to $6 from an early position. It’s vital to understand that this player typically raises with a range of hands, not just one specific holding. While they may be dealt a particular hand in that moment, you have no means to pinpoint exactly what it is. When your opponent raises, you can start to systematically exclude certain hands from their possible holdings. If your assessment of them being tight and straightforward holds true, they are likely to fold their weakest hands. Additionally, they would probably let go of hands like A-7 and Q-9 since they are in an early position. raise It's common to notice that most tight players will raise a variety of strong hands.
This indicates that your opponent's raises encompass every hand they are willing to play, which means they never enter pots with a simple limp. Tailoring each player's range according to their specific behaviors is essential. If, by contrast, your opponent chose to limp with the weakest hands in their range or was a player who raises liberally with many unsuited hands, our interpretation of the situation would change significantly.
Let’s build on our earlier scenario (remember that our tight player raised from early position). range similar to this:
Understanding How Ranges Work
In this situation, you find yourself holding 9s-9c and choose to call from the button. maniac Imagine you realize that your opponent tends to bet on the flop with all their potential holdings when they’re the initiator pre-flop, making it impossible to refine their range significantly. Against players who vary their betting actions—betting with some hands and checking with others—you can gather insights from their actions, which can help narrow their range.
You'll discover that with your 9-9 hand, you would win around 46% of the time against the opponent’s assumed range, even with a King appearing on the flop.
(For reference: All mentioned percentages are derived from an online poker equity calculator available for free.)
Everyone else folds
The flop comes Kc-8d-5s
Your opponent c-bets $10 into the $15 pot
Although you may currently be at a disadvantage, making a call is the better decision considering your odds. To win a pot of $15, plus your opponent's $10 bet, plus your additional $10, you only need to succeed in winning 10 out of 35 instances, which translates to a mere 29%. continuation bet Knowing that you hold the superior hand 46% of the time while only needing to secure a victory 29% of the time suggests that calling is the optimal choice. It’s crucial to understand that this decision isn't based on 'I think my opponent has A-Q', which is a common mistake among less experienced players. We also don’t fold just because we suspect they might have K-Q.
Using a poker equity calculator Adapt Your Strategy Based on Your Opponent’s Playstyle.
Let’s say you've noted that your opponent maintains a straightforward approach on the turn and river phases, aggressively betting when they believe they have the upper hand and checking with weak or no hands. Therefore, if they place a bet, it's wise to fold, as this bet limits their range to stronger hands like top pairs and above. . )
Since your hand is outclassed by top pair, folding here is a straightforward choice. Even if your opponent might be betting on flush draws or a few potential middle pairs, your hand remains vulnerable to most possibilities within that range. In fact, you’d probably only have about a 4% chance of winning when confronted with a bet on the turn, which isn’t adequate to warrant a call. This opponent’s likely betting range on the turn would look something like this: pot odds From this range, you can effectively eliminate all top pairs and better hands, leaving you with weaker holdings. Given this adjusted range, you're likely ahead 69% of the time.
An approximate range their opponent would check on the turn might appear as follows:
It's important to note that while there are certain hands in their range that could beat you, such as Q-Q, J-J, and T-T, the majority of their holdings remain unfavorable for them. If your hand holds a solid advantage against their likely range, and if many river cards could potentially improve your hand for the worse—like any Ace, Queen, Jack, or Ten—you should make a bet.
The turn is the (Kc-8d-5s)- 4c
In this case, placing a bet of around $18 into a $35 pot is recommended. This strategy gives your opponent less favorable odds to call with unpaired hands while enticing them with any weaker one-pair hands you currently beat. Additionally, if they do happen to hold you beat, your losses won’t be too substantial. Opting for a more considerable bet here could lead to a mistake, as your opponent would only call your turn bet if they had a significant hand.
It's important to always create opportunities for your opponent to make errors. pairs That said, poker scenarios aren't always straightforward. In situations like this, experienced opponents often prefer to check their entire range on the turn. It's also worth noting that if their range of checks on the turn mirrors their betting approach on the flop—matching their pre-flop raising strategy—then you'll only have the best hand about 50% of the time on the turn, leading to a challenging situation.
If instead your opponent checks Finding yourself in this scenario, checking may complicate your opponent's decisions. Furthermore, should they choose to bet their entire range, it would also make your decision more challenging.
Create Dilemmas for Your Competitors.
It’s crucial to place your opponents in tricky situations by making your range as diverse as feasible. This can be achieved by handling numerous hands in a similar manner. A common pitfall new players fall into is raising to 3 big blinds before the flop with all decent hands, while specifically raising J-J and T-T to 5 big blinds. Observant players quickly learn that a raise to 5 indicates they only have those exact hands, making them much easier to counter.
Another frequent mistake made by novices is to bet the flop universally, except for the absolute best hands. Their opponents will soon realize that when they place a bet, they cannot possess the top-tier hands, thereby significantly weakening their continuation betting range and solidifying their checking ranges. This flaw is relatively easy to amend by mixing in checks with both your strongest and weakest hands. This approach helps maintain strength in both your betting and checking ranges. In poker, you typically do not want to take actions that are solely very strong or solely very weak. bet size That being said, if your opponents are entirely unaware of your strategies and play their cards without concealment, 'protecting' your ranges by ensuring they remain properly strong is often an unnecessary modification. If your opponents are primarily focused on their own cards, employing a strong, tight, aggressive strategy should lead to significant profits against them.
However, as you progress to higher stakes and face tougher competitors, understanding how to assign your opponent a range and how to conceal your own range becomes increasingly crucial.
Be sure to check in for my upcoming article, where we will explore strategies to avoid tilt and focus less on results.
Jonathan Little holds the title of a professional poker player, having amassed over $6.5 million in live tournament earnings. He is also the author of 14 bestselling books, focused on poker strategies.
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