Table of Contents
What is a Set-Mine?
A set-mine can be defined as follows:
“Calling a pocket pair Before the flop, we might choose to call purely to aim for a set. set .”
When we engage in set-mining, we're not necessarily utilizing our pocket pair for its potential equity or usefulness in play. If merely calling were consistently profitable (as is often the case), it wouldn’t really align with what we consider a straightforward set-mine.
For instance, if we opt to cold-call with pocket Tens (TT) from the button against a cut-off open, our intention isn’t solely to hope for a set of Tens. Depending on the flop, we might find that TT maintains some strength, allowing us to proceed confidently against aggressive betting from our opponent. best poker hand Contrastingly, let's picture a situation where an opponent opens, and we cold-call with pocket twos (22) from the big blind. This situation illustrates what we refer to as a pure set-mine. Typically, if our opponent makes a continuation bet post-flop, we would instinctively fold our 22 unless we manage to hit our set. The only exception might be if we land an favorable flop.
A significant number of preflop calls with pocket pairs lie between the two extremes discussed. Often, the majority of value may indeed arise from hitting a set. However, there are numerous scenarios where we can profitably continue with our pocket pair, even if we fail to achieve that set. UTG It's logical to concentrate on pure set-mines, where our only path to profitability occurs if we successfully hit our set. Otherwise, we stand to lose when we don't make contact. Thus, it makes sense to evaluate the worst-case scenarios, particularly where our hand holds no value unless we connect. open-ended straight-draw and get the right pot-odds to continue.
The first metric to consider is the frequency with which we successfully hit a set after a preflop call. This will provide us with a fundamental understanding of the kind of
How to Set-Mine Profitably
investment required for a profitable set-mine. Given that there are three cards on the flop, our chances of hitting a set can be estimated at about 11.8%. In practical terms, this means we should strive to invest less than 11.8% of the total preflop pot. hit .
But how realistic is this expectation? In reality, we often find ourselves investing closer to 45% of the pot in heads-up situations and about 30% if three players are involved. So why is it that many see set-mining as a viable strategy? price The preflop cost does not justify a call based solely on the probability of hitting a set. However, when we account for the additional chips we can win by landing our set, it might turn into a worthwhile strategy. But how much do we actually need to earn post-flop for our set-mine to be considered lucrative? More importantly, how can we even calculate our potential earnings post-flop if we hit?
Evaluating the Profitability of Set-Mines
It all comes down to our implied odds Let’s visualize a straightforward preflop scenario and determine the average earnings we would need to achieve post-flop in order for set-mining to be profitable.
The small blind posts 0.5bb and the big blind posts 1bb. As the action unfolds, it comes to the cutoff, who raises to 3bb. Our hero, positioned on the button with a pocket pair, decides to call the 3bb raise, while the blinds fold.
So far, this scenario is quite clear. We understand that we can expect to hit our pocket pair around 11.8% of the time, therefore, from a direct pot-odds perspective, we should not invest more than 11.8% of the total pot. (While we're primarily focusing on implied odds here, using pot-odds helps us gauge the implied odds we should be targeting.)
To rephrase, if 3bb represents 11.8% of the pot, what would be the necessary total pot size for a call to be justified?
(In simpler terms, if the preflop pot size were hypothetically 25.42bbs and we are calling 3bb, that would put us in a position where we could logically justify the direct pot odds needed to try and hit our set. This assists us in evaluating the expected postflop earnings, especially since the actual preflop pot is substantially smaller than 25.42bb.)
When factoring in the contributions from the blinds, the actual preflop pot totals 7.5bb. This indicates a shortfall of about 18bb from what we would ideally need. This figure represents the average amount we should aim to reap in postflop scenarios for set-mining to make sense financially. In this case, it would amount to approximately six times our initial investment.
100/11.8 = 8.475
3bb * 8.475 = 25.42bb
The requirement of six times our investment might seem relatively modest, yet it isn't sufficient for us to simply hope we can attain that figure upon hitting. We must consistently hit that amount on average when we connect. If not, our set-mines will result in losses. There will be occasions where we make our set only to receive no action whatsoever. Therefore, it's essential that there are times when we can scoop larger pots to significantly exceed six times our preflop investment to ensure overall profitability.
We must also take into account the following possible outcomes
Average Winnings
When we hit our set but lose to a stronger set
We manage to get our chips in when we are ahead but the opponent gets lucky on the river
- We suspect our set might not hold value and make a fold
- Considering these possible outcomes, it becomes crucial that we can potentially extract far more than six times our preflop stake when we do hit. A conservative target we should ideally set is aiming for a potential payout of nearly 20 times our original investment in the best-case scenario.
- This 20-times projection leads to two frequently referenced guidelines in the poker community.
Many poker players adhere to these two commonly referenced principles. Familiarizing yourself with them can be beneficial for engaging in discussions with fellow players.
Call-20 – We should aim to earn 20 times our preflop investment post-flop poker rules , the call-20 rule and the 5-10 rule.
Call-20 / 5-10 Rules
In essence, if we're investing 3bb preflop for a set-mine, we need the accessible chips to allow for that return.
5-10 – As a general rule, we should avoid investing more than 5% of our stack on set-mining scenarios, with rare exceptions permitting an investment of up to 10%.
We'll delve into these exceptions shortly, but fundamentally, these guidelines are remarkably similar. For instance, if we enter a preflop pot with a 5bb investment and effective stacks of about 100bb (which is 5%), we position ourselves to potentially yield about 20 times our initial stake post-flop. effective stacks postflop to be at least 60bb.
Articulating our potential post-flop earnings is straightforward; it simply correlates to the depth of our effective stacks. However, there's no formula for determining our average return. This estimation relies on our understanding of our opponent's tendencies and the implied odds available to us. When uncertain about our implied odds, it’s preferable to adhere to the call-20 principle. Conversely, in situations where we anticipate favorable implied odds, we might adjust the call-20 guideline closer to a call-10 perspective.
What precisely are implied odds? And how can we evaluate the quality of our implied odds?
Estimating Implied Odds
Set-Mine Implied Odds – This essentially communicates the likelihood of achieving a significant payout upon successfully hitting our set.
The following scenarios typically present opportunities for favorable implied odds.
Opponent has a strong range – This suggests they’re less inclined to fold post-flop once we make our connection.
Opponent is aggressive – Such players often bluff a great deal and may try to pressure us through multiple rounds when we connect.
Opponent has a deep stack – The more chips they possess, the more potential winnings are available when we hit.
Opponent is not very skilled – If the opponent cannot part with a top pair when it hits the board, this presents an excellent opportunity for us to capitalize on our sets.
We can invert this list to assess scenarios where our implied odds fall short of expectations.
Limited Implied Odds – Even upon hitting, we can anticipate a meager payout.
Opponent has a weak range – If their range is overly broad, they're likely to fold more easily post-flop rather than pay us off.
Opponent is passive – Such players rarely bluff and seldom overestimate their second-best hands.
Opponent has a shallow stack – A reduced chip amount means less potential profit when we hit.
Opponent is a skilled player – They are more apt to recognize when we represent strength and act accordingly.
A common scenario where players view set-mining as non-profitable, despite the prospect of achieving 20 times our initial investment, occurs when the button opens while we sit in the small blind with a pocket pair.
Since the button often opens widely, many believe the chances of getting paid off post-flop diminish when hitting a set. As a result, despite the potential to earn 20 times our original investment, many players lean towards either folding or a three-bet. laydown as opposed to paying us off.
Situations with Bad Implieds
We can't overlook the risk of the big blind squeezing. If that occurs, we must discard our hand pre-flop, losing the opportunity to secure a set.
This concept can similarly apply when we're situated in middle position facing an open from early position. A lot of players recommend only considering pocket sevens and higher as set-mining candidates in this situation. Should we decide to defend all pocket pairs against an early open, we encounter two significant issues affecting our implied odds:
and potentially miss seeing a flop, while there may still be four players to act behind us (in a six-max game).
When holding low pocket pairs, we increase the likelihood of facing set-over-set situations in multi-way pots.
- We are more likely to get squeezed Players frequently pose the question -
- Is it ever appropriate to consider set-mining in response to a 3-bet?
Situations with Good Implieds
Assuming stacks of 100bb, this scenario typically doesn't conform to the call-20 guideline. However, there are occasions when we might still explore set-mining regardless. This becomes relevant if the 3-bettor possesses a notably strong range, which elevates the likelihood of profiting when we eventually connect. The primary examples of this are:
against an early or middle-position raise, as this suggests strength.
the aggressor has a track record of only 3-betting premium holdings.
- The aggressor 3bets Thus, in these situations, defending our pocket pair against a 3-bet is often justified, provided -
- Engaging in set mining during poker can yield significant returns, but this is predominantly true in specific situations. It's essential to identify the most favorable circumstances for effective set mining.
Strategies and Recommendations for Successful Set Mining
- The stacks are at least 100bb.
- The 3bet sizing is not super large.
Assessing the Profitability of Set Mining
- Before the flop, we often aim to hit a specific combination, like a set.
- When we undertake set mining, our strategy does not revolve around the inherent value of our pocket pair or its playability. If it were consistently advantageous to play it this way (which often is the case), we wouldn't classify our approach simply as set mining.
- For instance, when we cold-call with a pair of Tens from the button against a cutoff opener, our goal isn't solely to achieve a set of Tens. Depending on the flop's nature, we anticipate that our Tens will often be,
Putting it Together
and we would contemplate progressing in response to any strong post-flop betting from our rival.
Now, imagine a contrasting scenario where