Imagine yourself in a scenario for a moment. Take your time to read the following sentences and reflect on the questions posed to truly absorb the educational value.
Picture yourself participating in a tournament where the buy-in is €55. You find yourself holding Ks-Jd while sitting in the button position.
The action folds to you, and you decide to raise it to 2.5 big blinds. The small blind decides to fold, while the big blind calls your raise.
Since this is the early stage of the tournament, both you and your opponent begin the hand with an effective stack of 80 big blinds.
The board comes Kc-8d-7d.
Your opponent checks to you, prompting you to make a bet of 3.5 big blinds, which he calls without hesitation.
The turn is a 2c. Villain checks to you.
What do you do here?
Let’s say you bet again. 6.5 big blinds.
Your opponent calls.
The river card reveals the 2d, and the villain checks to you once again.
Do you fire again here?
Take a moment to consider your options. What would you typically do in this scenario? Be sincere in your assessment.
The advisable action here is to place another bet. You may confidently wager up to half the pot without drawing much attention.
It's true that a flush draw has completed, yet consider your current holding. You possess a diamond, which effectively limits the possible flush combinations your opponent might have.
Moreover, even if your opponent holds nearly any suited cards, the chance of them having a flush is only about 30% when they call your bet. Tools like Flopzilla can help you understand these probabilities. big blind Therefore, seven times out of ten, your opponent does not have a flush, and when accounting for card removal and the tendency of many flush draws to fold by the turn, this number may be closer to 80%.
In fact, eight out of every ten times, we are likely not up against a flush in this scenario.
Typically, players tend to have pocket pairs. The simplest hand to form in No Limit Hold'em involves having a common card that pairs with one of the board cards.
What do they have those eight times?
Hand Ranging Basics
For instance, if you have pocket sixes along with this board, there are only six viable combinations of achieving that hand. Yet, if you believe your opponent plays a wide range like A-8o, K-8o, or their suited versions, they could hold up to 72 different combinations. pair When facing a continuation bet, you can start inferring information about your opponent's hands; often, they will have at least a pocket pair.
Given the combinations possible, it's challenging for your opponent to be holding a pocket pair, so if they do, it's likely to be connected to the board cards. pair of eights !
When you continuation bet For instance, on our board, the presence of Eights and Sevens yields only nine combinations, assuming they call with hands like 8-7o and 8-7s before the flop.
People usually fold their high cards Additionally, if they call your bet on a flop featuring a flush draw, the likelihood of them possessing a strong hand decreases. Many players fear being outdrawn, leading them to play aggressively with their two pairs or sets.
In summary, whilst our opponent has 72 possible combinations of 8-X and nine unique combinations of 8-7, we cannot even fully track all the 8-7 possibilities!
Finally, it's true that they might still possess some flush draws, but the number of such combinations isn't excessively large either.
"I'm concerned about the high ace flush draws!\" several of my students often say to me. \"A-3s, A-4s, A-5s, A-6s, A-9s, A-Ts, and A-Js – I believe he's likely to call with all of these! That's quite a few hands!\" flush You are correct. That certainly is a considerable number of hands...
Combination Counting
However, there is precisely one way to have A-3 of diamonds. Just one. Hence, that translates to only one combination.
Out of all those hands you mentioned, it results in seven distinct combinations.
Excuse my detailed focus on combination counting, but I really wish this was something I learned earlier.
This lengthy analysis serves to clarify several important aspects:
…but it’s not many combinations.
Generally, players tend to fold high cards when the flop reveals itself.
When they opt to call on the flop, it's often indicative of them holding at least one pair.
The chances of them having a pocket pair are slim; it’s more plausible that they have struck a pair with one of the board cards.
Hand Reading for Normal People
Creating hands that are two-pairs or better is a challenging task for players.
- Players usually act aggressively with strong hands like two pairs when there are possible flush draws, making the likelihood of those hands even lesser.
- Logically, this suggests that they primarily possess pairs that coincide with the cards on the board.
- The more varied hands they hold preflop, the greater their potential for pairs. (Because the deep-stacked player called from the big blind against you, who opened from the button, we can reasonably conclude they have a diverse selection of hands.)
- If your hand has the edge over most pairs on the board, taking the opportunity to value bet is wise.
- If you’ve considered checking on the turn or the river, understand that you could potentially miss out on substantial earnings.
- The encouraging part is that value betting can be straightforward when we adhere to the strategies previously outlined.
- We target extensive hand ranges and place value bets against them. If someone opens too many hands, we can narrow them down significantly during the play. If another player calls often from the big blind, we might raise more substantial preflop to isolate them.
- Large hand ranges lead to lucrative value bets—that’s the approach we favor.
In the hand I just described, you are ahead of the majority of kings in your opponent's range. Most players won’t even fold K-3o to a button raise when they have deeper stacks. poker .
You will often find yourself facing calls from eights and even some sevens.
That equates to hundreds of combinations and significant calling action! three-bet Suppose you decide to bet 12 big blinds on the river.
While it may not appear large, accumulating 12 big blinds is quite challenging.
For instance, Aces generally earn around 9-10 big blinds on average.
If you choose to check back at that river, it is essentially like throwing away a strong hand!
Of course, occasionally, you might place a value bet only to run straight into K-Q. Such situations happen.
Every top player from around the world has inadvertently value bet against a weaker hand at some point. That attribute is what differentiates them as champions! They do not simply wait for favorable cards, but actively create their own opportunities! They are building their stack in anticipation of when that critical hand eventually arrives!
What separates great players from the rest is their proactive nature; waiting for cards to fall in your favor is akin to gambling. Gambling has its place, but it often leads to playing a flawed game. No Limit Holdem \"But what if my opponent believes I’m value betting lightly and attempts to bluff me?\"
That’s a great question! The reality is, this scenario does occasionally happen. However, it’s not as prevalent as you might assume.
Consider this: have you ever check-called the turn with just ace high, only to hope to check-raise on the river as a bluff?
What Separates Great Players
In most situations, when players call you twice, it's indicative of them holding some form of substantial hand—often a pair or a draw, most likely a pair.
Numerous players wouldn't even entertain the idea of raising a pair as a bluff on the river. They feel compelled to either call or fold, lacking the courage to leverage their pair strategically.
You know this from experience. Think back to the last time you visited a cardroom. How did everyone behave on the river when faced with a bet? They seemed anxious and indecisive, right? That illustrates they aren’t even contemplating turning their pair into a bluff!
It’s understandable; that strategy is among the most challenging maneuvers to execute in No Limit Hold'em.
In higher stakes games, players will have the skills to pull off such bluffs effectively. However, in a €55 Euro tournament, your safety margin is typically larger. out of position This week, make a commitment to yourself: focus on value betting more often on the river. Aim to do this against players who frequently call from the big blind in head-to-head situations, as that tends to be the safest circumstance.
Try to value bet your top pairs through all three betting rounds. Should they raise you on the river, have confidence that they possess a strong hand.
Alexander Fitzgerald, a professional poker player, has managed to accumulate over $3,500,000 in tournament winnings worldwide. He is regarded by many as the leading tournament coach across the globe. bluff catch or they have to fold.
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Join us as we delve into the complexities of value betting with your hands. Discover the reasons why you might want to increase your value betting frequency, especially when you reach the river.
Good luck to all of you.