“You need to understand when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em.”
These famous lines by Kenny Rogers from his iconic song The Gambler offer invaluable insight to anyone who loves the game of poker. Let’s be honest, though; there's nothing quite like the thrill of playing a strong hand for a large pot compared to the frustration of folding and observing from the sidelines.
Despite this, the act of folding is a vital strategy in poker and cannot be ignored. poker success If you frequently play too many hands, you risk significant losses. Variance in the game is a real threat that heightens with each additional hand you play.
Another well-known adage in poker is “tight is right.” These players definitely know when to fold. To assist you in learning about the best times to fold, here are five crucial considerations.
#1. Are You Picking Your Hands Wisely?
To decide if you should fold or not, you first have to have a hand to work with. In No-Limit Texas Holdem , every player starts with two hole cards before the flop, and from there, they face an immediate choice – to play or to fold.
There are 169 unique combinations Different starting hands have various strengths; some are far more advantageous than others. For example, pocket aces rank the highest, while a deuce-seven is at the bottom. So, which hands should you choose to play? Seasoned poker players often focus on the strongest 15 percent of hands and fold the remaining 85 percent.
Here's what the elite 15 percent of hands looks like, with those strong hands marked in blue.
If you prefer a more dynamic style, consider expanding to the top 20 percent of hands, which includes all suited aces, king-nine suited, and king-eight suited among other appealing options.
Of course, you're welcome to play any hand, and sometimes circumstances warrant doing just that (for instance, when it folds to you on the button, and you raise with Qx10x). However, if you're preparing for a poker showdown, it's wise to have a solid grip on your hand selection.
The quality of your starting hand directly correlates with your probability of winning.
#2.What Does the Money Mean to You?
In both tournament and cash game poker, chips serve as your scorekeeper, and those chips convert to actual money. The significance of that money differs for everyone, raising the question – what does it mean to you? cash games If you're financially secure, you probably approach the game with a sense of ease and relaxation. In contrast, if you are living paycheck to paycheck, high-stakes moments can induce considerable anxiety. Above all, remember to play within your means. Smart hand selection is crucial for victory, but effective bankroll management is equally important.
Moreover, don't deceive yourself thinking that a player's circumstances don't shape their game. For example, consider you're in a $1-$2 cash game and you possess A♣10♣ on a board showing 9♣5♣3♥. If your stack of $200 is all that remains until payday, and a chip-heavy opponent goes all-in, many players might hesitate and contemplate folding to maintain their stack.
Conversely, if you were a millionaire in the same scenario, it's likely you'd call and take a gamble on the hand.
There isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to this dilemma. It's up to you to ascertain the meaning of the money for yourself and to act accordingly. flush draw .
In tournament poker, a pivotal moment often arises known as the “
#3. Is the Money Bubble Near?
.” This marks the threshold between players who do not manage to cash in and those that do. For instance, if you're in a tournament with 100 players, the top 10 will receive payouts. With 11 players left, one more must be eliminated before anyone gets paid, signifying that you're on the bubble. the bubble As the bubble approaches, many players become more conservative, opting to fold hands they might usually contest. This is because engaging now could lead to a reduction in their stack, but by folding, they enhance their chances of reaching the payout threshold.
Stack sizes play a vital role in strategies during the bubble phase. Those with larger stacks can afford to take greater risks and might choose to fold less in an effort to accumulate more chips. In contrast, short stacks face a tough choice between pushing all-in or folding. Typically, if they push, it’s with a strong hand; if they fold, they’re usually hoping to survive until the payouts kick in. Players with medium stacks find themselves in a precarious position, needing to tread carefully.
It's essential to remain aware of the money bubble. If you have your sights set on cashing in, folding weaker hands is often a prudent strategy.
This consideration is vital when evaluating whether to fold. If a player is unpredictable and frequently enters pots, it's advisable to fold less against them. But if someone is very tight and only plays rarely yet suddenly makes a substantial raise, it’s generally wise to fold.
#4. What Sort of Opponent Are You Up Against?
For illustration, imagine you’ve been participating in a $2-$5 No-Limit Hold’em cash game for several hours. During this time, you’ve seen the player in Seat 1 participate in only a few hands, each revealing a strong combination. Now, this player opens for $15 from an early position, and you’re in the cutoff with 8♣8♠. Deciding to raise to $45, you then witness Seat 1 four-bet to $95 after the original raiser folds. What’s your course of action?
The straightforward answer is to fold! All indications suggest that this player holds a very strong hand, potentially even higher pairs.
Even if their hand is A♦K♥, you’d still be in a flip situation, meaning their range could be quite strong. overpair Now consider the same scenario, but this time Seat 1 is an ultra-aggressive player—perhaps someone who has had a bit too much to drink and tends to raise with a wide range of cards. In this case, you wouldn't be as quick to fold your pocket eights since they play favorably against the more erratic plays your opponent might make.
While you don’t need to be a mathematical wizard to excel at poker, having an awareness of the odds can significantly improve your decision-making about whether to play or fold.
#5.What Are the Odds?
Let’s say you’re sitting with A♥5♥ and you raise to 2,500 from your 80,000 chip stack. Your opponent on the button defends, and the flop reveals 6♥4♥3♠, giving you both a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw.
Let’s pretend it is Level 7 (500/1,000/1,000) of a tournament The big blind checks, and you follow suit with a continuation bet of 4,000. Suddenly, your opponent check-raises you all-in for 40,000, which is half your stack. What's your move?
First, you must assess how many outs you have. While you might not know exactly what hand your opponent is holding, you can make educated guesses based on potential hands they could shove with. Sets and two pairs could make sense, as well as straight or flush draws. For this example, we'll assume they have flopped a set.
Do you realize how many outs you have against a set of sixes? The answer is 14 (any of the nine remaining hearts, not including the 3♥, plus the three non-heart deuces and non-heart sevens that complete the straight).
Since you already know five cards (the flop and your two hole cards), that leaves 47 unknown cards. Out of those, 14 will help you. So, how do you calculate your odds of hitting your desired hand? You do this by taking your number of outs and dividing it by the number of unknown cards.
Here’s a useful chart that links your number of outs to the chances of completing your hand.
14 ÷ 47 = 0.2979 … or 29.79 percent.
If your likelihood of hitting is high, you may feel less inclined to fold. However, if the odds are not in your favor, don’t hesitate to let your hand go.
As Kenny Rogers puts it, “Every gambler knows that the key to surviving is knowing what to discard.”
Chad Holloway, a winner of the WSOP Bracelet in 2013, has worked as a managing editor and live reporter for PokerNews.